Forecasting effects of climate change on brackish water shrimp shoreline: The correlation between water temperature and air temperature in the forecasting model.

Cao Lệ Quyên[1], Trịnh Quang Tú3 and Phan Phương Thanh3

Vietnam Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning (VIFEP)

 Abstract

In the last decade, brackish water shrimp farming in coastal areas has developed rapidly and significantly contributed to remarkable growth of aquaculture sector in Vietnam. However, this sector has been impacted increasingly from climate change, which is considered as one of the barriers for sustainable development of the sector. Climate change impact assessment for shrimp farming to develop feasible adaptive solutions are necessary. However, one of the constraints in that impact assessments is lacks of water temperature forecast in existing national and provincial climate change scenarios. Cultured shrimps are more effected by water temperature fluctuation than air temperatures. As the existing national and provincial climate change scenarios mentioned only air temperature forecast, but not water temperature, it is necessary to conduct supplementary analysis to develop correlation relationship between water and air temperatures. By doing that, the variable of  air temperature can be replaced water temperature as a “indirect variable” in impact modelling. Basing on 96 observations of monthly water and air temperatures within eight years (2007-2014), Pearson correlation modelling has been developed for coastal areas of Thanh Hoa province. Pearson r is high, fluctuates between 94,1 – 99,5%, showing the positive correlation between  water and air temperatures in research site. When air temperature increases by 10C, the water temperature will also increase by 0,786 – 0,950C accordingly.

Keywords: Air temperature, water temperature,  brackish water shrimp farming, impact Pearson correlation.

[1]Vietnam Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning (VIFEP). Email: quyenvifep@gmail.com; quangtu.trinh@wur.nl; phuongthanhphan.neu@gmail.com[:]

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